West Asian And The Middle East Commodity Market

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Middle East and oil dependent economy - 8 percent economic growth in 2021

The normalization of oil demand, the end of the agreement to reduce production of OPEC Plus in 2021 and the gradual lifting of travel and quarantine restrictions in the region will be the most important factor in the economic growth of these countries

Given that most Middle Eastern economies are oil-based economies and use current revenues to cover current costs

West Asia, commonly known as the Middle East, has been historically associated with oil-dependent economies due to its abundant reserves of crude oil. The discovery and exploitation of oil resources in the region have had a profound impact on the economic and geopolitical landscape of West Asia. The oil industry has played a central role in the economies of several countries in the region, such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar. These countries possess significant oil reserves and have heavily relied on oil exports as a major source of revenue and foreign exchange earnings.

Furthermore, the oil sector's dominance has sometimes hindered diversification efforts in these economies. Overreliance on oil revenues has limited the development of other sectors such as manufacturing, agriculture, and services. This heavy concentration on oil can make economies vulnerable to price shocks, political instability, and global market dynamics. Recognizing the need to reduce their dependence on oil, many countries in West asia have undertaken economic diversification initiatives. They aim to develop non-oil sectors, attract foreign investment, promote entrepreneurship, and enhance technological innovation. For instance, the United arab emirates has made significant progress in diversifying its economy through sectors such as tourism, finance, real estate, and renewable energy.

Some countries have also focused on building sovereign wealth funds to invest oil revenues in international markets and diversify their asset portfolios. These funds aim to generate long-term returns and provide a buffer against oil price volatility. In recent years, there has been a growing recognition of the importance of transitioning to more sustainable and renewable energy sources. Countries in West Asia are investing in renewable energy projects, such as solar and wind power, to diversify their energy mix and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Overall, while West Asia has historically been associated with oil-dependent economies, efforts are underway to diversify and transform these economies to reduce their vulnerability to oil price fluctuations and promote long-term sustainable growth. It is expected that in 2021, following the resumption of economic activities and the resumption of demand, the non-oil sector in these countries will be revived, but the growth of oil production and demand in the world will be very poor. Of course, given that most Middle Eastern economies are oil-based economies and use current revenues to cover current costs, not raising oil prices will prevent a full recovery of the economy.

According to a new World Bank outlook, the region's oil-exporting countries will see 1.8 percent economic growth in 2021. The normalization of oil demand, the end of the agreement to reduce production of OPEC Plus in 2021 and the gradual lifting of travel and quarantine restrictions in the region will be the most important factor in the economic growth of these countries. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia's economic growth is expected to reach 2% next fiscal year with the return of major national investment projects, boosting demand and increasing VAT.

The economic structure of oil-dependent countries in West Asia is characterized by a high degree of reliance on oil revenues. Oil exports often account for a substantial portion of their GDP and government budgets. The revenue generated from oil exports has been utilized for infrastructure development, social welfare programs, and investment in various sectors. However, the heavy dependence on oil has also posed challenges and vulnerabilities for these economies. Fluctuations in global oil prices can significantly impact their fiscal stability and economic growth. A decline in oil prices can lead to budget deficits, reduced government spending, and economic slowdown.

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